The VfB has signed Augsburg’s captain Ermedin Demirović as a successor to record striker Serhou Guirassy, who is on the verge of a transfer to Borussia Dortmund. But can he replace him? We took a closer look at Demirović.
Actually, the transfer was already hinted at late last year when VfB treated themselves to a nearly flawless performance against FC Augsburg just before Christmas, and their captain, Ermedin Demirović, admitted on camera that he had never been played off the park like that, not even by Bayern. As a VfB fan, you are used to hearing such praise for your team only from opponents who have previously beaten us despite the good performance of the Brustring wearers. Now Demirović can play opponents off the park while wearing the Brustring and this Christmas fairy tale becomes the club’s biggest transfer investment to date. Some say it’s logical after the statistically best season in the club’s history, while others fear a possible signing of Deniz Undav under similar conditions could lead to the dreaded Champions League trap. The fact that so much money is being moved at VfB in one summer is definitely new and warrants closer examination — and maybe there is something between blind trust in those responsible and the fear of another decade of “Scheiße” after the “Reise”.
Limited prospects in Hamburg, Leipzig, and Alavés
But first, let’s focus on the player Ermedin Demirović, who has signed a four-year contract with VfB today and is reportedly earning as much as Guirassy did recently. Demirović was born on March 25, 1998, in Hamburg, making him 26 years old. He joined HSV at six years old, but at 16, they didn’t believe he had a professional career ahead of him, partly for physical reasons, as he once told the Swiss newspaper Tagblatt. Demirović worked independently on his fitness, catching the attention of Red Bull Leipzig, who brought him to their youth academy. In the 2014/2015 season, he played for both the under 17 and under 18, scoring 18 goals in 33 games but failing to win the championship with both teams. After scoring nine goals in the following season for the U19, he debuted for the second team in the Regionalliga Nordost in the 2016/2017 season, scoring directly in his only appearance and netting 14 goals again in the A‑Jugend-Bundesliga Nord/Nordost.
His time at the Salzburg beverage market subsidiary ended in 2017 for two reasons. According to the local press, the “RB talent” lacked the speed for the Bundesliga, and he couldn’t continue playing for the second team as it was deregistered. Thus, he moved to the Basque Country to Deportivo Alavés, who discovered him during a youth international match. However, the season did not go well for Demirović: as he told Stefan Rommel in an interview with Spox, he had no playing eligibility for the first half of the year because the club assumed, being born in Hamburg, he had a German passport — which he did not. So he debuted only in January 2018 in La Liga, and then right at Camp Nou against FC Barcelona with Lionel Messi. Apart from that one minute, he only made two more full appearances, scoring one goal and providing one assist at the end of the season. As noted in a very readable interview with Max Dinkelaker on 11Freunde.de, it was an emotionally challenging year for Demirović in his first stint abroad.
Breakthrough at St. Gallen
In the 2018/2019 season, he was loaned to the French second-division club FC Sochaux in the first half and to UD Almería in the second Spanish division in the second half. While he scored four goals in France, he remained unsuccessful at his second loan club, returned to Alavés, and was loaned again to FC St. Gallen under coach Peter Zeidler, who knew him from the Red Bull network. Marco from the fanzine SENF told us more about Demirović’s season at FCSG. One could indeed call this his breakthrough: Demirović scored double digits for the first time since the under 19 — 14 goals and provided seven assists. St. Gallen temporarily topped the league and finished second behind Young Boys Bern under coach Gerardo Seoane. Demirović decided the game at Servette Geneva with two goals alone:
He also scored a brace against FC Sion. Given his unsuccessful loans and relative obscurity, Marco said there were no high expectations of him as an immediate help. However, Demirović integrated well into the team, bringing leadership qualities on and off the field. The team, which included Leonidas Stergiou, was “a really cool bunch,” and Demirović harmonized well with his strike partners Cedric Itten (20 goals) and Boris Babic (seven goals). After a year, Demirović returned to Germany, to SC Freiburg. The transfer fee of nearly four million euros went to his loan club Alavés and not to St. Gallen, which Demirović regretted in the interview with 11Freunde.
First momentum, then tragedy
Freiburg had been pursuing him even before his transfer in August during the Corona break, as reported in interviews. Patrick from the Spodcast Freiburg explained that Demirović was planned as a prospective successor to Nils Petersen. Through his year in St. Gallen, he had made a name for himself. SCF finished the 2020/2021 season in 10th place, level on points with promoted VfB. Demirović scored five goals and provided ten assists, both in January 2021 in the home game against VfB, when he equalized Silas’s lead in the 14th minute and then assisted Jeong Woo-yeong’s goal — one of the more disappointing games of the still-good VfB season from today’s perspective. The start was bumpy for him, said Patrick — he sat on the bench for 90 minutes in the 3–2 away win in the first leg — but Demirović gained momentum by the end of 2020/2021, collecting ten scorer points in December and January.
The following season went much better for Freiburg, qualifying for Europe as sixth place and reaching the cup final, where they lost on penalties to Demirović’s former club — ultimately, if not causally, because he hit the crossbar with his penalty (trigger warning: celebrating Salzburgers):
Aside from this season’s closing chord, Demirović was not satisfied: he scored only twice in the Bundesliga (in Leipzig and Dortmund) and provided three assists (including one for Kevin Schade’s goal against VfB). He also had only two scorers in the 4–1 cup win in Hoffenheim. Patrick attributed this performance drop to a “lack of flow.” Höler and Jeong established themselves in a successful season, and as a joker, Nils Petersen usually came on and did well. During his short appearances — Demirović’s playing time halved compared to the previous season — he seemed very tense, trying to prove himself, Patrick said. While he developed quickly in his first season in Breisgau, the 2021/2022 season felt like a step back for many fans.
The swap deal
In summer 2022, there was a rare transfer in the Bundesliga: SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg swapped strikers. Ermedin Demirović went to Bavarian Swabia, and Michael Gregoritsch moved to Südbaden. Both had similar numbers — Demirović with seven goals and 13 assists in 61 games for Freiburg, Gregoritsch with ten goals and two assists in 49 games for Augsburg — but the assessment of this swap deal differed. Patrick explained that Demirović was in a difficult situation after the missed penalty and disappointing season, and Gregoritsch brought a playing element that SC lacked. At the same time, some fans didn’t want to give up Demirović’s strengths. In Augsburg, Gregoritsch was appreciated for keeping the club in the league with strong performances the previous season, but Demirović had a lot of development potential, especially given his high scorer rate relative to playing time over two seasons.
With two years’ distance, the balance is clear on both sides. Patrick described the swap deal as a win for all four parties (players and clubs), which is as rare as the deal itself. Freiburg looks somewhat wistfully at Demirović’s development — more on that shortly — but Gregoritsch integrated well in Freiburg with 17 goals and ten assists over the last two years, identifying with the club. FCA fan Amir sees Demirović as the better player, although he finds Gregoritsch very likable. The transfer to VfB and the record fee for FCA made the swap worthwhile. Sportingly, Demirović was “an absolute hit” with 23 goals and 16 assists.
Close to relegation
When Demirović joined Augsburg, Enrico Maaßen replaced former VfB coach Markus Weinzierl. Amir said Maaßen liked to actively approach players before transfers to convince them to join. This seemed to work with Demirović. Amir also noted that it probably wouldn’t have happened under Weinzierl, as Demirović didn’t fit his system, whereas Gregoritsch was a key player for him. As we know, it turned out differently, and Demirović helped the team narrowly avoid relegation with eight goals and six assists — though none against us. The crucial factor was our draw against Hoffenheim, allowing FCA to afford a 0–2 loss at Gladbach on the last matchday.
For nearly ten years, Amir explains, the club had not been so close to relegation. As a VfB fan, one can recall wondering how this FCA managed to stay up. Amir saw some good approaches and also cited several injuries as a reason, but the season also had many lows, and many of the new signings in the winter had already left the club. However, Demirović and his strike partner Mergim Berisha played a significant role in the few victories, leading with their performance and mentality. His verdict: “Without the two of them, we certainly would have been relegated.” Demirović also rallied the fans during the relegation battle. The past season then ended up being a calmer one for the neighbors beyond the Bavarian state border. After just one win in seven games, the club replaced Maaßen with Jess Thorup, under whom the team achieved a comfortable eleventh place. Demirović contributed not only 15 goals and 10 assists but also led the team onto the field as captain.
Important Role as Captain
For Amir, this was an understandable decision. Demirović had already taken the lead with his mentality during the relegation battle and fulfilled this role even with the armband on his arm. He was also an absolute key player on the field, scoring crucial goals and securing important points for FCA while allowing his strike partner Philip Tietz to develop. In the end, it was one of the best seasons in years, with Thorup achieving a lot since taking office. Even though the team ran out of steam with six defeats in the last seven games, the strong performances throughout the season provide a foundation to build on, leaving him optimistic about his club’s near future, especially with the transfer revenue.
Demirović’s future now lies in Stuttgart, a move that few in Augsburg begrudge him despite his role as captain, mainly because he always behaved impeccably beforehand, according to Amir. Other ex-captains could certainly take a leaf out of his book. Although he will not immediately take over the armband at VfB as a newcomer, all three experts agree that he will not need much time to settle in and will quickly take on a leadership role, especially since he is also the captain of the Bosnian national team, for which he has now played 26 games and, as Marco notes, is at the perfect age for a leadership role in a team.
The Falling Forward
In this respect, he seems to be a good fit for VfB and can fill a gap in the team’s hierarchy after Anton’s departure. But what does he bring besides the already known stats? All four coaches at his last three clubs mostly deployed their teams in a 4–4‑2 formation with various midfield setups, sometimes with a double six or a diamond. In St. Gallen, Demirović formed a strike partnership with Cedric Itten, in Freiburg he operated mainly as a target man in a 3–4‑3 or a 4–4‑2 with two inside forwards or another striker around him, and in Augsburg, under Maaßen, he occasionally moved out to the left wing, cutting inside with force, as Amir explains, but played even better as a central striker under Thorup.
Notably, Demirović is not the classic penalty box striker who waits upfront for the ball. On the contrary, in Augsburg, he often dropped behind Tietz, creating space for himself, and in Freiburg, he could also move out to the wings. Marco also highlights his ability to set up his teammates and sees him more as a number ten or a second striker. If Undav stays at VfB, Amir sees him more in the center, as both players have a similar understanding of the game, and there would be a risk of both dropping deep. In any case, Demirović’s game benefits from having a player around him as a supplier and target. Here, according to our experts, his strengths come into play.
High Game Intelligence, Inconsistent Efficiency
These strengths, besides the already mentioned mental and leadership qualities, include his good technique, game understanding, and goal-scoring instinct. Amir explains that Demirović can utilize and read spaces very well, a skill that will be useful in Sebastian Hoeneß’s system driven by precise passing. Moreover, Demirović brings good pace. The playing style might be different from Augsburg, but he possesses all the necessary abilities. With the ball at his feet, he is not easy to dispossess, Patrick adds. He also praises his game intelligence, tackling strength, and ability with both feet. In St. Gallen, his weaker foot was still one of his few weaknesses, as was his heading ability. Both Patrick and Amir also describe his still inconsistent efficiency in front of goal. Patrick associates this with confidence, while Amir recounts that he “carelessly squandered some big chances but capitalized on difficult ones.” Patrick is also curious to see how his skills with the ball in tight spaces will develop.
With VfB, Demirović will play in Europe for the first time, and then directly in the Champions League. All three experts believe he can showcase his performance there, especially after his development in recent years, of course, in conjunction with the rest of the team. Amir points to his physical playing style and good performances against last season’s German Champions League participants. But can he also replace Serhou Guirassy or, if the latter does not return to Stuttgart, Deniz Undav, as initially asked — then, of course, in conjunction with another striker?
A Different Player
It must be noted that it is difficult to replace the striker with the best season performance in club history, and even Undav’s 28 scorer points are so fantastic that they are not easily matched. However, Amir believes Demirović can improve again in Stuttgart because he has better teammates than at FCA — which is certainly a factor for a player who does not operate as a lone fighter. Nobody expects him to replicate Guirassy’s extraordinary goal-scoring season, as that comparison is almost bound to be lost.
Looking at Demirović’s stats compared to other offensive players, they initially seem sobering. Here is Demirović compared to other strikers:
and compared to offensive midfielders:
Especially when looking at the graphics for Guirassy (compared to strikers) and Undav (compared to strikers and offensive midfielders):
However, one should not overlook, as Amir says, the quality of teammates and the team’s success, and also not forget that Serhou Guirassy, despite his flexibility, is still primarily a classic penalty box striker whose main goal is to get the ball to his feet in the box and into the net. Demirović is more versatile but still does not reach Undav’s numbers compared to other players in the same position. Demirović shows his strengths more in the transition play backward and in assists. So he still has some catching up to do compared to last season’s VfB strike duo. At the same time, with 0.38 goals per shot on target, he surpassed Deniz Undav (0.35), and his 14 goal-creating actions (the shot leading to the goal and the two ball actions before it according to fbref.com) are quite respectable in a Bundesliga comparison, especially since mostly players from top teams are ahead of him in this statistic.
The King Transfer?
Demirović, nicknamed “Demi” in Augsburg and Freiburg and with an Instagram profile where he appears quite extroverted, is thus taking the next step in his career with the move to VfB and facing a new challenge. Even though, unlike other new arrivals, he comes to VfB from a different level. One could certainly call him the king transfer of the current transfer period. VfB, which would have been in a financially precarious position with a newly renovated stadium if it had been relegated to the second division a year ago, is now, just one runner-up finish and an investor entry later, shattering its previous transfer record of 11 million for Nico Gonzalez. Was last season the major turning point, and do we now have to think in bigger dimensions in Stuttgart, if we sell three players for at least 60 million euros and will compete with the best on the continent next season? Or is someone at the top getting too greedy?
I must admit, I do not know how much additional liquidity the peep show at the player tunnel and the newly renovated stadium bring in. The millions from Porsche are supposed to primarily strengthen the equity capital, which of course puts VfB on a broader financial basis and facilitates all kinds of negotiations. However, it was also this equity capital that melted away like ice in the sun due to two relegations and the preceding sporting failures in the last decade. Because after the Champions League participations in 2007/2008 and 2009/2010, money was sunk into players like Ciprian Marica, Yildiray Bastürk, Mauro Camoranesi, and Pavel Pogrebnyak, resulting in the situation described by Serdar Tasçi in the podcast interview, namely that he left VfB to help the club financially with his transfer fee. Sportingly, we could only replace him four years and one relegation later with Benjamin Pavard.
What is the season goal?
Shortly after the end of the season, Alexander Wehrle made the quite sensible statement that the club aims to assemble a squad that it can afford even if it does not play internationally in 2025/2026. The idea is that European revenues would support corresponding salaries, and if these revenues were to disappear, the club wouldn’t overextend itself financially. This sounds promising in the long term, and the current development of Demirović and Undav doesn’t necessarily indicate a decline in their careers. However, the combined cost of both transfers would reach dizzying heights for us, even if individual salaries were adjusted according to the club’s financial situation. There is a certain risk involved due to the transfer fees alone, and because VfB Stuttgart is still not financially secure.
The concern is not necessarily because Demirović or Undav are not trusted to continue their previous performances. It’s also because the rest of the team must continue to perform at a high level to achieve similar success again. This is by no means guaranteed after a very good season. Recently, I wrote here that VfB Stuttgart must use this exceptional situation to consolidate financially and sportingly in the Bundesliga. Currently, given the potential magnitude of these transfers, it’s not entirely clear to me what approach the club will take into the new season. Can they seriously set the goal of reaching the 40-point mark with this level of transfer activity, akin to Augsburg’s approach? Or must they aim to play in Europe again in the season after next, to retain players like Undav or Demirović and avoid selling them below their market value due to lack of sporting perspective?
Everything is different now.
Don’t get me wrong: From a sporting perspective, I’m excited about Demirović’s transfer because I believe he will fit well into the team both personally and athletically. However, with his signing, Fabian Wohlgemuth also creates internal and external expectations akin to those seen perhaps only during the return of Alex Hleb or the transfer of Jon Dahl Tomasson, expectations that might not have existed a shelf lower down for strikers with less experience and similar potential. 2024 is certainly different from what we’re used to at VfB Stuttgart. Let’s hope that this continues positively into the coming season, and that “Demi” Serhou Guirassy quickly helps us forget Angelo Stiller and Wataru Endo.
I’ll leave the very nice closing words to Marco from SENF, with warm regards to St. Gallen:
VfB Stuttgart has acquired a great player, both in terms of football and from what I can judge, personally. Here in St. Gallen, we’ve continued to follow his career, and some are even considering getting the Stuttgart jersey with his name on it for the new season. Just that alone shows he’s made a lasting impression with us, even as a loan player. I hope he performs well for you and look forward to chanting his name after scoring a goal for Stuttgart 😉
Picture: © Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images