All about the next game: Frankfurt at home

Just befo­re the next inter­na­tio­nal break, VfB Stutt­gart will host the team of the moment, Ein­tracht Frank­furt, at the Neckar­sta­di­on. The SGE (Sport­ge­mein­schaft Ein­tracht) seems to have regai­ned its for­mer strength, part­ly thanks to a for­mer Stutt­gart play­er. For the play­ers with the red stri­pe on their jer­seys, this will be the next true endu­rance test.

In the past, games against Frank­furt, whe­ther at the Neckar­sta­di­on or the Wald­sta­di­on, were pure ago­ny. After the rele­ga­ti­on in 2016 and Eintracht’s simul­ta­neous suc­cess in the rele­ga­ti­on play­offs, both clubs went in com­ple­te­ly dif­fe­rent direc­tions: VfB spent a total of two years strugg­ling in the second divi­si­on and ano­ther two fight­ing for sur­vi­val in the Bun­des­li­ga, while Ein­tracht soared from one suc­cess to the next, cele­bra­ted eupho­ric Euro­pean nights, and final­ly crow­ned it all with their first inter­na­tio­nal title in over 40 years. In head-to-head encoun­ters, VfB usual­ly came out on the losing end, often thanks to Filip Kos­tić, who repea­ted­ly sent balls into our net from the left flank.

The 2023 cup semi­fi­nal, with Sebas­ti­an Hoe­neß alre­a­dy on the side­lines, was a first indi­ca­ti­on that tho­se times might be over: the Neckar­sta­di­on was buz­zing as VfB and Ein­tracht batt­led long and hard for a spot in the final. Though Frank­furt ulti­m­ate­ly pre­vai­led, the game was more remi­nis­cent of the legen­da­ry 5–4 match at the Wald­sta­di­on than of the usu­al dis­ap­poin­ting per­for­man­ces against the Hes­si­ans. Last sea­son, the tide then brief­ly tur­ned: in Frank­furt, VfB nar­row­ly won a match overs­ha­dowed by a con­fu­sing poli­ce ope­ra­ti­on, and the return game at the Neckar­sta­di­on was fair­ly one-sided. Ein­tracht once again qua­li­fied for the Euro­pa League, while VfB rea­ched the Cham­pi­ons League—where on Wed­nes­day, we were bea­ten by our Frank­furt fri­ends from Ber­ga­mo for the first time in over a year in our home sta­di­um.

Why all the back­story? For one, I’m loo­king for­ward to a duel bet­ween two strong, even­ly matched teams, with two fan bases sure to crea­te an out­stan­ding atmo­sphe­re once again. On the other hand, I am some­what worried about the impres­si­ve form of Omar Mar­moush and the supers­ti­ti­on that ex-play­ers always seem to score against us. Is VfB strong enough to face and beat a third powerful oppo­nent within a week, and this time, unli­ke in Lever­ku­sen and against Ber­ga­mo, to score?

Which brings us to the per­son­nel situa­ti­on.

Personnel Situation

Deniz Undav picked up a ham­string strain on Wed­nes­day, and accor­ding to Hoe­neß, his place in the start­ing ele­ven this after­noon is “a clo­se call.” Jeff Cha­b­ot, who missed the cup match due to inju­ry and was then sus­pen­ded against the cham­pi­ons, was also not fit to start in the Cham­pi­ons League. Let’s hope he is today, alt­hough I can’t place much bla­me on Antho­ny Rou­ault and Anrie Cha­se. Leo Ster­giou was alre­a­dy back in the squad on Wed­nes­day, so he should also be available against Frank­furt. Zag­adou and Lewe­ling remain out.

Possible Lineup

Assum­ing that Undav will be res­ted initi­al­ly and that Cha­b­ot is fit to start, we can expect some chan­ges up front. This would mean El Bil­al would start for the fourth time in the last four games, and he’ll be tra­ve­ling with Mali again next week. It’s pos­si­ble Hoe­neß will give him a half or 60 minu­tes off the bench.

Statistics

This will be the 103rd Bun­des­li­ga encoun­ter bet­ween the­se two teams, with VfB curr­ent­ly ahead with 44 wins to 35. In recent years, howe­ver, VfB has mana­ged only a handful of home wins against SGE: 2024, 2018, 2015, and 2012. As for our oppo­nent, Frank­furt has scored the second most goals in the league after Bay­ern, an achie­ve­ment part­ly due to their impres­si­ve 7–2 win over Bochum. But even wit­hout that game, they share a strength with our last oppo­nent: they are very effi­ci­ent. Of their 46 shots on tar­get, 23 have gone in—meaning one in every two shots finds the back of the net, the best rate in the Bun­des­li­ga. They have also scored almost four more goals than expec­ted, pla­cing them second in the league behind Bay­ern. It’s the same with goal-crea­ting actions, mea­ning the two to three moves lea­ding to a goal. On the other hand, SGE has con­ce­ded only two fewer goals than VfB and, along with Bochum and Kiel, allows the most shots on goal. They also lead the league in goals con­ce­ded from cor­ners, with four, alt­hough they pro­ba­b­ly aren’t thril­led about that.

Omar Mar­moush is, of cour­se, the main focus right now. He has alre­a­dy coll­ec­ted 10 goals and six assists in nine league games, with only Har­ry Kane curr­ent­ly out­pa­cing him. Only Erme­din Demi­ro­vić has a slight­ly hig­her goals-per-90-minu­tes ratio wit­hout pen­al­ties.

Conclusion

It’s clear that VfB and Ein­tracht are now ope­ra­ting on equal foo­ting, as none of the men­tio­ned sta­tis­tics lea­ve Frank­furt far ahead. And even if Wednesday’s loss dam­pened spi­rits a bit, VfB has still lost only two of the first nine league games. Over the last 43 games sin­ce the begin­ning of last sea­son, the­re have been just nine los­ses. VfB show­ed solid orga­niza­ti­on against Ber­ga­mo, as well as against Kai­sers­lau­tern and Kiel, and mana­ged to with­stand Leverkusen’s ons­laught for 90 minu­tes. If they can bring both the­se ele­ments to the field today, we might head into the inter­na­tio­nal break with a win and gain some upward momen­tum in the standings—a pro­mi­sing posi­ti­on at the tenth match, even if it’s only the first third of the sea­son.

Pic­tu­re: © Leon­hard Simon/Getty Images