With Atalanta BC coming to the Neckarstadion tonight, we’re likely facing one of the toughest opponents in the Champions League group stage. At the same time, VfB has stabilized and is well-staffed — yet a more active performance than on Friday in Leverkusen will be necessary to keep the home record intact.
Real, Sparta, Juventus, and now Atalanta. The impressive list of club names gracing our schedule this autumn still feels incredible. Tonight marks our second home game in the Champions League and another major test for the Neckarstadion, which hasn’t seen VfB lose in over a year. Even though the team with the Red Stripe hasn’t shined as brightly as it did in the 5–1 win against Dortmund or the 1–0 in Turin, it continues to prove tough to beat. Only three of 15 competitive matches ended in defeat after 90 minutes, and the team took care of business against Kiel and Kaiserslautern and secured a point in Leverkusen despite a tough day. Certainly, in the past, we might have picked up a few extra points from some of these matches, but given the current situation with the added workload and our opponents’ heightened perception of us, this record is quite acceptable. Sure, last season we had to stretch for every win, and this year’s stress test is proving even more intense. A performance like the one in Turin will be needed twice this week if VfB wants to come out on top. That said, recent results in both competitions have afforded us a little breathing room.
Now let’s turn to
Squad Situation
The situation has improved slightly: After Ameen Al-Dakhil’s return, Leonidas Stergiou is finally a candidate for the squad again, so aside from the long-term injured Daxo Zagadou, only Jamie Leweling is currently unavailable. On a positive note, Chris Führich’s form is improving steadily.
Possible Lineup
It’s an intense week, but I don’t expect Hoeneß to rotate heavily given the quality of the opponents. If anywhere, rotation might happen up front, where Demirovic might start instead of El Bilal, though El Bilal will likely look to prove himself off the bench against his former club. Perhaps Rieder or Chase could start for Millot and Rouault, but I find that unlikely.
Statistics
Atalanta is the eighth Italian club VfB will face in European competition, following Lazio, Parma, Napoli, Sampdoria, both Turin clubs, and Perugia. Wins have only been achieved against Torino, Juventus, and Perugia. This will be VfB’s 29th Champions League match since the competition’s inception in 1992, and the 15th home game in this competition. Atalanta is currently quite a powerhouse in Italy, and not just this season — their Europa League triumph last summer speaks to that. Over the weekend, they defeated league leaders Napoli 3–0 and currently have the most goals scored in Serie A. What’s interesting is the efficiency of the Bergamo club’s offense: they’ve scored eight more goals than expected. Additionally, they lead the league with 61 shots on target, meaning nearly every other shot is going in. According to FBref, they also lead Serie A in shot-creating and goal-creating actions. However, they have conceded 14 goals in 11 games, so they aren’t the defensive fortress Juventus is. With 41 shots allowed, they sit mid-table defensively, and their goalkeeper doesn’t shine particularly in post-shot xG metrics, so they don’t have much of a “safety net” at the back. The game plan should therefore be: stay solid defensively and make the most of scoring chances.
Conclusion
As mentioned at the outset, our win in Turin has given us a bit of a cushion, and even a home loss tonight wouldn’t be catastrophic — as long as we pick up the likely sufficient six additional points in Belgrade, against Bern, and after Christmas in Bratislava. Tonight will certainly require a similarly focused performance as in Turin to stand a chance against such a dangerous team. At the same time, a win could give the team a massive boost that could carry us through the coming weeks. The opportunity is here, just like it was two weeks ago in the Juventus Stadium.
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