In Munich, VfB kicks off four intense weeks on Saturday evening before the next international break, facing very different challenges than in recent times.
I have to say: I’m still frustrated by the draw against Hoffenheim. Not because of the late won point or the total of nine points from six games, but simply the fact that, unlike against Prague against a strong opponent or in Wolfsburg against a weak referee, we really dropped points here against a team that capitalized on an individual mistake and then tried to hold onto the lead with their hastily assembled squad and a coach on the verge of being fired. And they almost succeeded without a goal from the only player I am truly afraid of, Andrej Kramaric.
But right now — and maybe in general — it doesn’t help to dwell on the past. The pace at VfB has massively picked up this season. Since the game against the Badensers on Sunday night a week before last, the club with the red stripe has written new stories, with six German national players in a DFB squad, two of whom were responsible for all of Germany’s goals in the two international matches. Apart from Chris Führich, most of the national players have likely returned to Stuttgart with a lot of confidence, in good rhythm but also without a real break. Confidence and match practice will be crucial for the upcoming weeks, and the squad has been strengthened in depth over the summer to avoid fatigue.
Saturday Munich, Tuesday Torino, Saturday Kiel, Tuesday Kaiserslautern, Friday Leverkusen, Wednesday Bergamo, Sunday Frankfurt. That’s the schedule for the next few weeks. On the one hand, there’s little time to catch a breath, but also little time to emotionally process the results. In every sense. This will be a challenge not just for the team, but for us fans as well: before you’ve mentally moved on from the always important game against Bayern, you’re already in the away section in Turin or sitting in front of the TV, and you have to focus on probably a very defensive Kiel side. How many wins we’ll celebrate in these seven games is still unclear. But with all the focus on the sport, we shouldn’t forget to enjoy this situation a bit. We’re competing against the German record champion, the reigning German champion, the Italian record champion, the Europa League winner, and one of the hottest teams in the Bundesliga right now — and we don’t need to hide from anyone.
Perhaps this was somewhat overshadowed by the slight disappointment of missing out on three wins in a week. VfB may not be able to repeat last season — I coincidentally rewatched the first two home games from last season on YouTube today, and it’s hard to immediately compensate for the buildup play from Anton and Ito as well as the goal-scoring abilities of Guirassy, as seen in those games — but this team and this coach will still play a strong role this season. The difference is that we currently need a bit more time to adapt to the new situation: Defensive teams that, unlike last season, won’t move the bus under any circumstances because they’d be satisfied with a draw. The transition from a target striker to a system with several offensive players with different profiles. At least for now, the buildup play doesn’t necessarily create space right from the defense.
Nevertheless, Ermedin Demirovic, Deniz Undav, and Enzo Millot have already scored twelve goals together in the first six league games. In the Bundesliga, only Harry Kane, Michael Olise, and Jamal Musiala — who will be on the pitch with the next opponent — have matched that. Defensively, the team has allowed no more than four shots on target in the last four games. Of course, too many of those shots ended up in the back of the net, but that’s also different this season: we no longer seem to get everything falling into our lap as it sometimes appeared in the past. All the more reason to regain the sharpness and quick reactions that distinguished us in the past in the upcoming games, regardless of whether the opponent is sitting deep or besieging our goal.
Personnel situation
Unfortunately, Chris Führich is out after suffering a muscle fiber tear during his late substitution against Bosnia-Herzegovina, Justin Diehl and Leonidas Stergiou are not fit enough for the matchday squad, and we will be without Daxo Zagadou for a while again, with Luca Raimund also still out. Whether Niko Nartey or Ameen Al-Dakhil will travel to Munich due to their lack of match practice is still uncertain.
Possible starting lineup
Basically, Führich — alongside Zagadou — is the only notable absentee, even though he hasn’t yet matched his performances from the runner-up campaign. Even with this lineup, VfB’s currently strongest team will still be on the pitch, though Sebastian Hoeneß will certainly rotate between the two upcoming away games, maybe leaving Undav, who was slightly injured in the second international match, on the bench and starting Rieder — hard to predict.
Statistics
It’s the 111th Südgipfel in the Bundesliga, and we won the last one at the Neckarstadion in May — as we often do when we have an outstanding season. In Munich, though, things look grim apart from the freak game under Korkut. You have to go back to March 2010 and Marica’s header. FCB is, of course, once again near the top this season under their new coach Vincent Kompany, with their transfer budget and quality being simply too big. At least they, like VfB, haven’t won any of their last three competitive matches, drawing against Leverkusen and Frankfurt and losing to Aston Villa.
Still, they are joint league leaders with Red Bull, have already shown their goal-hungry form this season, have scored the most goals, have the best goal difference, and are ranked first on expected points by Understat.com. Interestingly, VfB is right behind them in second. They’ve also conceded the fewest shots on target so far — just twelve in six games — but seven of those have gone in, the worst ratio in the league. When it comes to shot efficiency, meaning the ratio of goals to shots on target, VfB is ahead of Munich. Interestingly, Munich is not only in the top ranks for possession and passing accuracy this season but also for running statistics.
Conclusion
Can VfB repeat the coup from the third-to-last matchday of last season? Difficult, especially away in Munich. But it’s also clear that, just like in the last match, Munich is not unbeatable defensively, and Vincent Kompany won’t want to let VfB have the ball the way Thomas Tuchel did. And Sebastian Hoeneß certainly won’t be outcoached again. Tough weeks lie ahead, as mentioned before. Whether in Turin or Munich, VfB can’t afford to slip up if they want to take points. Careless mistakes will be doubly punished here. If we get that under control, the coming weeks will be not only exciting but also successful.
Picture: © Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images