To conclude the first half of the season, VfB Stuttgart faces Leipzig. A win could bring a conciliatory end to a chaotic first half and even bring Europe back into focus.
I don’t know what bothers me more about this matchup: that the 16th and 17th matchdays take place after the winter break, that the 17th matchday is scheduled for midweek, or that the least attractive opponent by far comes to town to wrap up the first half of the season. A 17th matchday at home against Leipzig also means that we will spend the final matchday of the season at this construct’s half-empty stadium. Meh. By now, our upcoming opponent has been in the Bundesliga for nine years, but it’s still worth mentioning that it’s not a real club, but merely advertising for an unhealthy energy drink. And yes, I know the typical responses to this statement: “VfB also advertises for a company, isn’t that hypocritical???” There’s a small but significant difference: for VfB, sponsors are a means of financing. If there were no sponsors, VfB Stuttgart would still exist. Perhaps not as a Bundesliga or professional club, but the club would still exist. For Leipzig, however, it’s not sponsorship. No, Leipzig itself is the advertisement. That is their reason for existence. Without RB, there’s no RB Leipzig. And I will never tire of emphasizing this fact.
Matches against Leipzig have also rarely been entertaining on the pitch. Except for last year’s 5–2, there’s usually been a thrashing, and I’m not very optimistic that this will change. The team still seems too shaky, even though I think the performance in Augsburg might have been viewed too critically. If Demirović had capitalized on his chances, we might have won 3–0, and the retrospective would be more positive. But in the end, it was a narrow 1–0, and that’s the crux. Our conversion of chances is dreadful. Demirović simply needs to deliver more. I’m not a fan of pinning a problem on one player, but it was hard to miss against Augsburg. Tellingly, Undav was substituted for Demirović, not Woltemade, and tellingly, Undav scored the decisive 1–0 for our VfB shortly after coming on. We need a reliable offense; the team needs to reward itself more.
Personnel Situation
To the already known injuries, Maximilian Mittelstädt is added. The German international is sidelined with groin issues.
Possible Starting XI
I don’t expect much rotation. Hendriks will step in for the injured Mittelstädt. A starting XI spot is still too soon for Undav and Leweling.
Statistics
As mentioned above, the record against Leipzig, despite the 5–2 victory, is not very positive. We’ve scored as many goals (nine) against Leipzig as we’ve lost games. This also highlights our poor chance conversion. While we’ve scored 30 goals—a figure above average—according to understat.com, we should have scored 34. Leipzig, on the other hand, is overperforming. They should statistically be somewhere in mid-table based on points. They have 8 points more than their xPoints and thus the biggest discrepancy between xPoints and actual points. This is largely due to their defense. Although they’ve conceded only 22 goals, they have an xGA of 29. This 7‑goal discrepancy is also the best in the Bundesliga. Their goalkeeper Gulasci has been instrumental, with eight clean sheets (a league best) and being rated as the best goalkeeper by Kicker.
Conclusion
Leipzig is a tough opponent for us, but there have been times when we were even more hopeless or Leipzig was more dangerous. Effectiveness in front of goal will be key since we’re facing the best goalkeeper in the Bundesliga. I think the first half of the season will end with a 1–1 draw.
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