As soon as the DFB-Pokal match in Regensburg is over, Union Berlin is already waiting for us at home. The “Eisernen” (Iron Ones) are a team that is strong defensively but weak offensively.
The good news: At least things are going well in the DFB-Pokal. Sure, the draw has been kind to us so far, but advancing a round is advancing a round. In the Bundesliga, evaluations of the current season bring mixed feelings. Some think it’s good that we’re within striking distance of the international spots, while others expect at least a 7th-place finish given the high summer spending. Still, others are simply relieved that we’re not stuck in a relegation battle.
The game against Union Berlin will be the next real test. The “Eisernen,” currently sitting in 11th place and just one point behind us, are having a season that has gone largely unnoticed by non-Berliners. Things are particularly interesting at the Alte Försterei right now. Bo Svensson, the de facto successor to Urs Fischer, seems like a perfect fit. His emotional and gritty counter-pressing, which brought him success at Mainz 05, fits brilliantly with the Iron Ones. As a former East German club, they now represent “terror football” more than any other team, and under Bo Svensson, this continues.
They have the second-best defense in the league, conceding only 11 goals, but the weakest attack with just 10 goals scored, tied with St. Pauli and VfL Bochum. They are the only Bundesliga team to average less than one goal scored and conceded per game. At the Neckarstadion, we can expect an unpleasant and unattractive match.
Squad Situation
For VfB, the match against Union will also be about establishing a somewhat stable starting eleven. The injury list hasn’t changed since the Regensburg game. However, it seems Leweling might be able to return to training next week. Al-Dakhil is also expected to have finally recovered from his illness. Still, neither will be available for the Union game. Injuries and illnesses continue to give Hoeneß a headache. Justin Diehl, however, is proving to be a remedy. The six-time U20 national team player appears to have settled in well at Neckarstadion and has consistently impressed as a substitute. He has the potential to follow a development path similar to Jamie Leweling, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in the starting eleven in the medium term.
Possible Starting Lineup
Admittedly, no one knows how much the rotation machine will be cranked up again, potentially to rest regular players for the crucial Champions League match against the Young Boys from Bern. However, in my opinion, this lineup is the most realistic. Vagnoman continues in the unfamiliar role of right winger, and Stenzel gets more chances to prove himself.
Statistics
In the ninth Bundesliga meeting of the two 2019 relegation playoff participants, VfB Stuttgart has the chance to even the record. Stuttgart has drawn three times against the Eisernen and lost three times. VfB has only managed to win twice, with both victories coming under Hoeneß last season.
As previously mentioned, Union is defensively strong but offensively weak. A key part of their strength lies in their highly physical style of play. They have won the second-most duels in the league and are very strong in aerial battles (third in headers won). They are not shy in their challenges, either, having committed the second-most fouls and received the second-most cards this season. Despite this, they have yet to receive a red card. Offensively, however, they are unsurprisingly very weak. In possession and passing stats, they sit at the bottom of the table. Their xG (expected goals) also matches that of a relegation candidate.
Conclusion
This will be a tough and unattractive game—perfect for a Friday evening stadium visit in freezing temperatures, where you start to wonder if there aren’t more pleasant hobbies out there. Union is beatable, but to do so, the team must be defensively solid and offensively patient. I predict we’ll end up with a more or less fair 0–0 draw.
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