All about the next game: Bochum at home

The last inter­na­tio­nal break until March next year is over. At home, VfL Bochum awaits as an oppo­nent at rock bot­tom, but they are arri­ving with some momen­tum.

VfL Bochum ver­sus VfB Stutt­gart is, on one hand, a clash bet­ween a rele­ga­ti­on can­di­da­te and a Cham­pi­ons League par­ti­ci­pant. On the other hand, it’s a mee­ting of the last two play­off win­ners. Unli­ke VfB, the Revier club bare­ly sur­vi­ved last year, scra­ping through in a penal­ty shoo­tout. Howe­ver, while VfB Stutt­gart car­ri­ed the ener­gy from the play­offs into the sea­son and crow­ned them­sel­ves run­ners-up, VfL Bochum is having one of the wea­k­est Bun­des­li­ga cam­paigns in histo­ry. Only two points after 10 match­days is not first-league mate­ri­al, no mat­ter how tough the fix­tu­re list was. None­thel­ess, Bochum arri­ves in Stutt­gart with some tail­wind. Die­ter Hecking is a coach who knows how the Bun­des­li­ga works and what mat­ters. He imme­dia­te­ly made a state­ment in his first match, snat­ching a point from Bay­er Lever­ku­sen, who are used to suc­cess. The­re are cer­tain­ly bet­ter moments to play against Bochum—especially as I expect a deep-sit­ting oppo­nent who would be hap­py with a draw. But it’s not just Bochum’s new­found con­fi­dence that could spoil the par­ty on Satur­day. VfB is also facing chal­lenges, par­ti­cu­lar­ly in terms of

Personnel

Jamie Lewe­ling remains inju­red and will be out for a few more weeks. The most high-pro­fi­le recent inju­ry is likely Deniz Undav. The Ger­man inter­na­tio­nal has suf­fe­r­ed a mus­cle fiber tear. His strike part­ner El Bil­al Tou­ré, who qua­li­fied for the Afri­ca Cup with Mali, is also expec­ted to miss out with a foot inju­ry. The defen­si­ve situa­ti­on isn’t much bet­ter. Along­side long-term absen­tee Zag­adou, Al-Dak­hil will be side­lined with a fever. Mid­field stra­te­gist Ange­lo Stil­ler and youngs­ter Anrie Cha­se are doubtful, having strug­g­led with mus­cle pro­blems during the week. Natu­ral­ly, this inju­ry list might make VfB fans skep­ti­cal about a poten­ti­al home win against Bochum. But I see it dif­fer­ent­ly. This situa­ti­on could also be an oppor­tu­ni­ty. In the sum­mer, we spe­ci­fi­cal­ly streng­the­ned the squad’s depth, and this could be the per­fect moment for play­ers like Wol­te­ma­de, Kei­tel, and others to step up. With Wol­te­ma­de in par­ti­cu­lar, you can see how he’s gai­ning con­fi­dence. Of cour­se, he won’t ful­ly replace Undav, but he wasn’t brought in for not­hing. A slight down­si­de is that he wasn’t nomi­na­ted for the Cham­pi­ons League, so he won’t be available for the important game in Bel­gra­de. But he should hop­eful­ly be enough for Bochum.

Possible Starting XI

meineaufstellung.de

I’ll assu­me the worst-case sce­na­rio and pre­dict Stiller’s absence. At first glan­ce, this doesn’t look too bad. Rie­der could play on the right in place of Mil­lot, while Mil­lot takes on Stiller’s role. Rou­ault could also be repla­ced by Ster­giou, which wouldn’t be a loss in qua­li­ty.

Statistics

Bochum is a wel­co­me guest for VfB. In 70 Bun­des­li­ga matches, VfB has won 36 times. The Revier club has taken all three points only 16 times. The last defeat against Bochum wasn’t that long ago: on Janu­ary 20th this year, VfB lost 0–1 at the Ruhr­sta­di­on. But the home record looks much bet­ter. Bochum has only won four times at Stuttgart’s Neckar­sta­di­on. The last time VfL mana­ged to get points the­re was in 1987(!). It’s not for not­hing that VfL is bot­tom of the table. With 30 goals con­ce­ded, they have the league’s wea­k­est defen­se. Even in expec­ted goals against (xGA), they are last by a wide mar­gin. Unli­ke VfB, Bochum is not a pos­ses­si­on-ori­en­ted team. They have the lowest avera­ge pos­ses­si­on and play the fewest pas­ses, with the wea­k­est pass com­ple­ti­on rate in the Bun­des­li­ga. One might think they’d com­pen­sa­te with bet­ter off-the-ball actions, but the oppo­si­te is true. They com­mit the most fouls and have the fourth-worst duel suc­cess rate. The­se stats should be taken with cau­ti­on, though. With Hecking, a new coach brings a new play­ing phi­lo­so­phy, so who knows if they’ll act com­ple­te­ly dif­fer­ent­ly on Satur­day.

Conclusion

On paper, this is a must-win game. Howe­ver, inju­ries could signi­fi­cant­ly wea­k­en us, and Bochum could use the match against VfB to gain strength for their rele­ga­ti­on batt­le. It won’t be a pret­ty game; I expect a very defen­si­ve and com­pact oppo­nent. Nevert­hel­ess, I think we can win. 1–0, with Wol­te­ma­de scoring.

Pic­tu­re: © Adam Pretty/Getty Images

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