VfB Stuttgart has been struggling with its form for weeks. Will they manage to turn things around against relegation-threatened KSV Holstein?
I’m trying to find a silver lining in last week’s games: At least they weren’t completely without chances against Bayern Munich, and at least they deserved three points against TSG Hoffenheim. But the same problems as before were evident again. Up front, they squander too many chances, and at the back, they practically invite the opponent to score. I fear that if we don’t stop this negative trend, it will shake the team’s confidence too much, and we’ll end up in a self-fulfilling prophecy – a vicious cycle.
I could somewhat excuse the defensive lapses. The defense has been massively rebuilt over the past six months and still needs time to settle. So, coverage issues are understandable. But what our offense is doing is very concerning. Demirović has yet to fully find his form in Stuttgart, and his partners—Leweling, Millot, and Deniz Undav—seem to have caught his struggles. I still believe Hoeneß can turn things around, and I believe the team can regain its former strength. There are also some positive performances: Finn Jeltsch is becoming an almost irreplaceable starter, Mittelstädt and Führich have the left side under decent control offensively, Stiller remains as solid as ever, and Nick Woltemade does things with the ball that we usually only see from Lionel Messi (yes, an intentional exaggeration before anyone complains). If Hoeneß can build a stable system around these players, I believe Undav and company can rediscover their old form. With Holstein Kiel, we might just be facing the right opponent at the right time.
However, whether Holstein Kiel—officially Kieler SV Holstein—is really the ideal opponent for us right now is another question. For one, we’re missing almost our entire central defense. For another, Kiel has gained momentum. They recently won against direct competitors in the relegation battle and, for the first time this season, are no longer at the bottom of the table. They are now within striking distance of the relegation playoff spot. So, anyone expecting an easy game in Germany’s northernmost stadium will quickly be proven wrong.
Squad Situation
This is giving us a headache. In addition to the long-term absentees, Al-Dakhil remains out. New signing Jaquez and Jeff Chabot are ill, and Anrie Chase picked up an adductor injury. On top of that, young Finn Jeltsch is suspended due to yellow card accumulation.
Possible Starting XI
Yes, you read that right: Almost the entire central defense will be missing in Kiel. Out of necessity, Stergiou will have to move from his usual right-back position back into central defense. Up front, I see Demirović, with his aerial strength, as the preferred option against Kiel’s deep-lying defense, while Undav could come off the bench as an impact sub.
Statistics
Kiel sits in 17th place with 16 points. After 25 games, they have won and drawn four times each. They are significantly better at home than away: Three of their four victories have come at the Holstein-Stadion.
The “Störche” (Storks) are strong offensively. With 35 goals, they are on par with teams like Gladbach, Wolfsburg, and Freiburg, who are all competing for European spots—despite having the fewest shots and the weakest expected goals (xG) in the league. Their biggest weakness is their defense. With 59 goals conceded, they have, by far, the worst defense in the league.
Their playing style is typical of a relegation battler: They focus less on possession and more on physicality and effort. They have committed the fourth-most fouls, recorded the most intensive runs and sprints in the Bundesliga, and covered around 2,877 km—one of the highest totals in the league.
Our makeshift central defense will need to be especially wary of Shuto Machino. The Japanese striker has already provided 10 assists this season, meaning he has been involved in nearly a third of Kiel’s goals.
Conclusion
A stormy battle awaits us in the cold north. But despite our personnel shortages and Kiel’s newfound confidence, this is a game where we must take all three points.
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